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Published Thursday, July 17, 2008

Rose will have a say in who wins

The first time I recall seeing golfer Justin Rose was back in 1998 when the then 17 year-old British youngster threatened to win the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.

Rose has returned this week to Royal Birkdale and although he posted four-over 74 on Thursday, he played in difficult conditions. I have to believe he'll have a say in who wins again in Southport, England.

A decade ago he finished fourth. It was a remarkable major debut. Several years ago in Augusta I took the time to ask him about the 1998 British Open.

"My goal was to finish top 10 but I thought I could win. I felt like Jack Nicklaus because everywhere I went, I got a standing ovation," Rose told me following a practice round at Augusta National.

I imagine the question I posed has been repeated over and over this week. The locals would love if Rose, Lee Westwood, or a Paul Casey could breakthrough and grab victory at Royal Birkdale.

Rose has all the tools and I've never been able to figure out why he doesn't win more titles. He's deadly off the tee, uses the right mental approach, and has a good short game.

His overall talents may be better suited to win in the states instead of across the pond. Augusta National seems like an ideal course for him to score on.

But I do expect Rose to be in the hunt come Saturday and Sunday. I know he is hungry for a major victory and would especially like to win in front of a supportive gallery.

Rose plays his best when it really matters. He knows how to handle the pressure. Rose finished in the top 12 in all four majors in 2007.

He hasn't played a round of golf at Royal Birkdale since the final round back in 1998. But he obviously knows his way around the course and can feed off the loud cheers.

Tiger Woods is absent, leaving Ernie Els and Sergio Garcia as the two tournament co-favorites. Els had trouble in the harsh conditions and posted ten-over 80. He's not out of it but would need to respond today with a quality score.

I'm not sure what to think of Sergio Gracia. The Spaniard should have coasted to victory a year ago but allowed Padraig Harrington to pull out the improbable win.

Garcia will be a factor and perhaps his time has come. Things have gone well for Spain and its althletes this summer. The Spanish soccer team slipped past Germany in the Euro2008 final and tennis star Rafael Nadal triumphed over Roger Federer in an epic five-setter at Wimbledon.

Phil Mickelson came in as the top American hope but labored to an opening round 79. That was one better than Ernie Els. I expected a sharper Mickelson but don't forget about the miserable conditions.

Mickelson played early and it seemed like conditions became more reasonable during the afternoon. The morning wave looked like they were just trying to find the clubhouse and get out of the brutal conditions.

When you considering the weather, Mike Weir and Retief Goosen, must feel good about their rounds. Both faced the tough morning conditions and both shot impressive 71s. K.J. Choi and Ian Poulter were another morning pair that were just one off that pace.

Today will be interesting with the tee times flipped. Those who played late on Thursday should get the greatest challenge this morning.

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