Published Thursday, February 04, 2010

Georgia's crowded race for governor could soon heat up

Editorial

Twelve Georgians -- seven Republicans and five Democrats -- are in the race for governor, hoping to replace Gov. Sonny Perdue, who by law can't seek a third term.

The party primaries will be in July, and the general election will be Nov. 2.

So far, the two races have been quiet, but that may be about to change. A round of political debates has begun across the state, and those debates will continue during the next two weeks.

Some political observers believe the campaign pace may pick up as candidates make a stronger pitch for fund-raising dollars and votes in the July primaries.

Right now, on the Democratic Party side, former Gov. Roy Barnes is seen as the front-runner. He also leads in political contributions. Some would say Barnes is a sure bet to win his party's nomination. But Georgia statewide politics more often than not in the past three decades or more has seen the early front-runner falter, with a candidate coming out of the pack to capture the nomination.

Among the Democrats, our guess is only two of Barnes' Democratic foes have a chance of winning the nomination -- Attorney General Thurbert Baker and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter. Baker has the best chance of catching Barnes. Porter would be a long shot.

Democrats David Poythress and Carl Camon simply can't win, in our opinion.

On the Republican side, the pack is even more crowded. The five top Republican candidates are Congressman Nathan Deal, former Secretary of State Karen Handel, Sen. Eric Johnson, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine and Rep. Austin Scott.

Oxendine, who has strong name recognition because of multiple statewide races, has been leading in most polls. Expect Deal or Handel to make gains in the coming weeks. Also, don't count out Johnson. He will run an effective campaign, but may lack the statewide name recognition and money to challenge the others. Scott would be a longer shot, but he has fared better than some people expected in the polls. His walks around the state have introduced him to many voters.

It will be interesting to see if the upcoming debates move the political polling needle -- either up or down -- for any of the candidates.