Published Monday, December 01, 2008

Analysts: Black Friday's sales rush won’t eliminate bleak retail season

The Times-Herald

Shoppers made repeat trips to U.S. stores and spent more on bargains this holiday weekend; but the early rush is unlikely to save retailers from a bleak sales season, analysts are now saying.

Early results from the Black Friday weekend that kicks off holiday shopping showed that sales grew both in stores and online -- fueled by repeat trips, heavier online sales and deep discounts from retailers across the price spectrum.

Newnan retailers and business owners also reported an uptick in sales this weekend.

"All of the customers we had on Black Friday did make a purchase, and most took advantage of our specials," said Molly Morrow, owner of The Epitome of mccole design in downtown Newnan.

"Opening at 11 might have hurt us, but I was out shopping myself in the early morning hours," she said.

Robbie Hinely, owner of Hit the Trail, said Friday brought "strong sales and a steady stream of lookers with an occasional pause."

Most sales, Hinely said, were on credit card.

"I'm guessing it was about 85 percent credit and 15 percent cash," he said. "People are happy, and few -- if any -- mention the economy."

But national industry groups and analysts said the Black Friday numbers did not change their view that 2008 will be the weakest holiday sales season in years.

"We take all of this into context and realize Black Friday is not going to save the holiday season," National Retail Federation spokeswoman Ellen Davis told Associated Press. "Regardless of retail sales, retail profits are another matter. Everything they sold was at a razor-thin margin."

The U.S. economy has actually been in a recession since December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research reported Monday.

The NBER -- a private, nonprofit research organization -- said its group of academic economists who determine business cycles met and decided that the U.S. recession began last December, even though many are saying that the recession is just getting started.

But despite the recent non-stop run of negative economic news, local Newnan area shop owners like Ray DuBose said that "contrary to popular belief, there is still business to be had here in Newnan."

The job of local business owners is to "go get it," he said in a mass e-mail to numerous local merchants.

"I know many of you have concerns about our economy these days," he said. "Heck, I do too. Times are challenging, to say the least."

As independent business owners, local retailers "have a distinct advantage" over their competition because they are "more knowledgeable, more flexible, and better able to react to market conditions," DuBose said.

Local businesses also "have stronger merchandise and are more involved in the community than the competition," he contended.

"There is business out there," he said, "and you can still do well in these challenging times."

Business owners have to "help make people feel good about themselves," he said.

"Now, more than ever, people are looking for something to help make them feel good."

Above all else, he said, "you and your staff have to maintain and display an upbeat and positive outlook.

"Look around," said DuBose. "There is money being spent. Instead of focusing on the news of the economy, focus on what you can control: your business. Concentrate on doing all those 'little' things right ... and don't forget to smile!"