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Published Friday, November 20, 2009 in Opinion
Another forecaster says it will be 2011 before our economy improves
Editorial
Another strong voice in our state's economic forecasting arena says we can expect Georgia's recession to continue into 2010, with the state's fiscal picture improving in 2011.
That was the word this week from Rajeev Dhawan, director of Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center, who made a presentation in Atlanta. Dhawan's outlook in many ways goes along with forecasts by Donald Rataczak, director of the economic forecasting center at Georgia State University in Atlanta. Rataczak spoke earlier this fall at an economic forecasting summit at State University of West Georgia in Carrollton.
While there are some signs the economy is improving, job losses and tax collections are still major factors holding back our economy in Georgia. Job losses in our state during the third quarter of the year totaled 50,000. That was the fourth dismal quarter in a row. Tax collections in our state continue to falter year-over-year, and Dhawan said that's because unemployed Georgians are spending less -- they simply have less to spend.
On the Coweta County front, the unemployment picture is apparently discouraging people who are unemployed. Some local people who seek to help the unemployed say it looks like many who are unemployed are giving up their quest to find a job.
"They are giving up," said Marche Boykin of the Goodwill Career Center. "They're exhausted."
It's sad, but Boykin said, "I think a lot of them are just not willing to put in the work it takes" to find a job.
Things are indeed tough, but we would encourage those seeking jobs to not give up hope. The Goodwill Center, the Newnan Career Center of the Georgia Department of Labor and others are here to help. Use all these resources.
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There's a door in this wall somewhere
11/20/2009
Link To This Comment
“Jobs are likely to remain scarce for some time, keeping households cautious about spending. As the recovery becomes established, however, payrolls should begin to grow again, at a pace that increases over time. Nevertheless, as net gains of roughly 100,000 jobs per month are needed just to absorb new entrants to the labor force, the unemployment rate likely will decline only slowly if economic growth remains moderate, as I expect.” Ben Bernanke 11/16/2009 This article reports Rajeev Dhawan as being largely in agreement with a slow recovery.
Assuming that jobs remain ‘scarce for some time’ say until 2011 then starts adding 100,000 new jobs a month and increases to 120,000 new jobs a month for the next 6 years, unemployment will remain above 10% until 2014/2015 and will not return to pre-recession levels until 2019/2020.
Posted by turfkiller at 11:56 AM